Deriving an optimal asset allocation for institutional investors hinges crucially on the quality of inputs used in the optimization. If the mean vector and the covariance matrix are known with certainty, the classical mean-variance optimization of Markowitz (1952) produces optimal portfolios....

We study an investment experiment conducted with a representative sample of German households. Respondents invest in a safe asset and a risky asset whose return is tied to the German stock market. Experimental investments correlate with beliefs about stock market returns and exhibit desirable...