How has the CCB affected mortgage pricing after Switzerland became the first country to activate this Basel III macroprudential tool? By analyzing a database with several offers per mortgage request, we construct a picture of mortgage supply and demand. We find, first, that the CCB changes the...

We model 1927-1997 U.S. business failure rates using a time series approach based on unobserved components. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term movements in default probabilities and default...