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This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. We run forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003981333
We investigate whether foreign purchases of long-term U.S. Treasury securities significantly affect their expected excess-returns. We run predictive regressions of realized excess returns on measures of net purchases of treasuries by both foreign official and private agents. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857491
The purpose of this study is to assess the diversification benefits resulting from international asset allocation. In this study, we examine Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) in its international context (ICAPM) using the monthly equity returns for 26 countries (18 developed and 8 emerging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009770247
resources internationally based, inter alia, on the perceived policy credibility of the national authorities and their policies …. The PTI shows that when a country has low credibility and is heavily indebted, investors hold its economy to a tighter … higher inflation, with limited or no impact on output. On the other hand, high credibility creates space for effective and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012012446
This study revisits and tests empirically the Portfolio Theory of Inflation (PTI), which analyzes how the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy in open and globally financially integrated economies is influenced by global investor decisions (Bossone, The portfolio theory of inflation and policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012140238
policy credibility: when a country's credibility is low, they hold its economy to a tighter intertemporal budget constraint … credibility creates space for effective and noninflationary macro policies but, if such space is abused, credibility gets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011993031
Foreign investors play a key role in EME sovereign bond markets, in part because their portfolio flows are sensitive to bond returns and are therefore pro-cyclical in nature. This note discusses the implications of the framework proposed by So et al. (2019) which incorporates the risk that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869450
Foreign investors play a key role in sovereign bond markets in emerging market economies (EMEs), in part because their portfolio flows are sensitive to bond returns and are therefore pro-cyclical in nature. This note discusses the implications of the framework proposed by So et al (2019), which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012870061
We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and lack of monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012854689
We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that are poorly spanned by the traditional level, slope and curvature factors but have strong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global factors are jointly significant predictors of bond returns,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009009483