This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

We show that the level of interest rates determines the magnitude of mispricing at the turn of the tax year, as investors face the trade-off between selling a temporarily-depressed stock this year and selling next year, but delaying tax implications by one year. Interest rates do explain the...

What role does noise play in equity markets? Answering this question usually leads immediately to specifying a model of fundamentals and hence the pervasive joint hypothesis quagmire. We avoid this dilemma by measuring noise volatility directly by focusing on the behavior of country closed-end...