This paper uses stochastic simulations on calibrated models to assess the optimal degree of reliance on fun ded pensions and on a particular type of unfunded (PAYG) pension. Surprisingly little is known about the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are sources of...

This paper uses stochastic simulations on calibrated models to assess the optimal degree of reliance on funded pensions and on a particular type of unfunded (PAYG) pension. Surprisingly little is known about the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are sources of...

I find both U.S. and international evidence that aggregate corporate cash savings strongly negatively predict future excess market returns. In the U.S. stock market, market timing based on aggregate cash savings yields annual returns 2.55% higher than an all-equity-all-the-time strategy. The...