We test whether credit risk for Emerging Market Sovereigns is priced equally in the credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets. The parity relationship between CDS premiums and bond yield spreads, that was tested and largely cofirmed in the literature, is mostly rejected. Prices below par can...

An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...

A 'lost decade' for the Eurozone is looming on the horizon. Under these circumstances, stable indicators for future economic activity are especially valuable to decision makers. This paper examines the predictive power of the yield spread, one of the most reliable indicators for gross domestic...