In the paper, we research on the presence of long-range dependence in returns and volatility of BUX, PX and WIG between years 1997 and 2009 with use of classical and modified rescaled range. Moving block bootstrap with pre-whitening and postblackening is used for the construction of confidence...

This paper investigates the extent to which the slope of the yield curve in emerging economies predicts domestic inflation and growth. It also examines international financial linkages and how the US and the euro area yield curves help to predict. It finds that the domestic yield curve in...

In the paper, we research on the presence of long-range dependence in returns and volatility of BUX, PX and WIG between years 1997 and 2009 with use of classical and modified rescaled range. Moving block bootstrap with pre-whitening and postblackening is used for the construction of confidence...

A well-documented empirical result is that market expectations extracted from futures contracts on the federal funds rate are among the best predictors for the future course of monetary policy. We show how this information can be exploited to produce accurate forecasts of bond excess returns and...

In this paper we analyze a multivariate non-stationary regression model empirically. With the knowledge about unconditional heteroscedasticty of financial returns, based on univariate studies and a congruent paradigm in Gürtler and Rauh (2009), we test for a time-varying covariance structure...

The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold and Li (2006) have recently proposed a dynamized version. In this paper we extend Diebold-Li to a global context, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in...

We suggest using "realized volatility" as a volatility proxy to aid in model-based multivariate bond yield density forecasting. To do so, we develop a general estimation approach to incorporate volatility proxy information into dynamic factor models with stochastic volatility. The resulting...

The goal of this paper is to show that the growth rate of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has predictive ability for a range of stock markets, which is demonstrated through in-sample tests and out-of-sample statistics.The documented stock return predictability is also of economic significance, as...

This paper proposes a generalized arbitrage-free macro finance term structure model with both Nelson-Siegel latent yield factors and observable macro factors. Two subclasses are derived: spanned and unspanned models. In the spanned model, the yields are determined by both the Nelson-Siegel yield...