Popular yield curve models include affine term structure models. These models are usually based on a fixed set of parameters which is calibrated to the actual financial market conditions. Under changing market conditions also parametrization changes. We discuss how parameters need to be updated...

The evolution of the yields of different maturities is related and can be described by a reduced number of commom latent factors. Multifactor interest rate models of the finance literature, common factor models of the time series literature and others use this property. Each model has advantages...

We study a consumption-based asset pricing model with incomplete information and a- stable shocks. Incomplete information leads to a non-Gaussian filtering problem. Bayesian updating generates fluctuating confidence in the agents' estimate of the persistent component of the dividends' growth...

We derive a general joint affine term structure model of US government bond yields and the convenience yields on physical commodities. We apply this framework separately to oil and gold. Our results show clear links between bond and commodity markets, since bond factors play a significant role...

This paper studies the impact of variance risk in the Treasury market on both term premia and the shape of the yield curve. Under minimal assumptions shared by standard structural and reduced-form asset pricing models, I show that an observable proxy of variance risk in the Treasury market can...

There is strong empirical evidence that long-term interest rates contain a time-varying risk premium. Options may contain valuable information about this risk premium because their prices are sensitive to the underlying interest rates. We use the joint time-series of swap rates and interest rate...

Using leverage adjusted index option data, a novel prediction of the anchoring adjusted option pricing model is tested. The anchoring model is based on the idea that the risk of the underlying stock is used as a starting point that gets adjusted upwards to estimate call option risk. The...

We analyze the effect of option trading on the return predictability of short interest. There is no difference in the return predictability of short-interest ratios between stocks with and without traded options. The predictability of the put-call open interest ratio (PCOIR) is weaker than that...

Are options on more volatile assets expected to provide higher or lower return? Using analytics, we show the ambiguous nature of the answer when the volatility differential is due to the systematic/priced risk. Here the difference in the expected return of the assets also matters and has an...

In this paper, we explore the relation between information uncertainty and S&P 500 index option returns. Since underlying state variable affecting economy is unobservable, investors have to obtain their own estimations based on available information. During such procedure, it is inevitable that...