Investor behavior is an important determinant of individual as well as market-wide equity returns. In this study, I extend the behavioral investing literature by introducing Strategy Market Barometers, that are based on the extent to which investors are currently rewarding one equity strategy...

This paper introduces market barometers that are based on measurable and persistent investor behavior. I test the ability of U.S. market, international market, and capitalization barometers to predict S&P 500, MSCI EAFE, and Russell 2000 returns, respectively. The empirical results for January...

This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008. We run forecasting...

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the value of nonfinancial firms in Chile. Using a detailed dataset on firms' foreign activities, the potential determinants of the identified exposure are examined. Foreign exchange exposure depends on the levels of foreign...

This paper investigates the sources of both foreign exchange rate and interest rate exposure of industry level portfolios in the G7, decomposing exposure into cash flow and discount rate effects. Initial examination of the degree of exposure on industry returns produces results consistent with...

We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that are poorly spanned by the traditional level, slope and curvature factors but have strong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global factors are jointly significant predictors of bond returns,...

We investigate the relation between foreign exchange (FX) order flow and the forward bias. We outline a decomposition of the forward bias according to which a negative correlation between interest rate differentials and order flow creates a time-varying risk premium consistent with that bias....

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...

We sort currencies by countries' consumption growth over the past four quarters. Currency portfolios of countries experiencing consumption booms have higher Sharpe ratios than those of countries going through a consumption-based recession. A carry strategy that goes short in countries that are...

Monetary policy loosening and the associated impact on credit availability may have played a role in the present financial crisis. If such liquidity risk exists and is undiversifiable, then loose monetary policy should be associated with a risk premium. This paper tests for the existence of such...