We test and offer support to Merton's (1987) theory that difference in a stock's investor recognition affects its cost of capital. In the U.S. market, using the breadth of ownership among retail investors as a proxy for investor recognition, we show that a long-short portfolio based on the...

Analysis of required expected return disclosures by public pension funds in individual asset classes reveals a reliance on past performance in setting return expectations. These extrapolative expectations operate through the expected risk premium and occur across all risky asset classes. Pension...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

Mutual funds hold 32% of the U.S. equity market and comprise 58% of retirement savings, yet retail investors consistently make poor choices when selecting funds. Theory suggests that poor choices are partially due to mutual fund managers creating unnecessarily complex disclosures and fee...

Revisions of consensus forecasts of macroeconomic variables positively predict announcement day forecast errors, whereas stock market returns on forecast revision days negatively predict announcement day returns. A dynamic noisy rational expectations model with periodic macroeconomic...

This study brings to light the new empirical fact that flows into US domestic equity mutual funds depend less on past fund returns when the risk-free rate declines. A one-percent drop in interest rates is associated with a decrease in the slope of the flow-performance relationship of around 10%....

This paper is the first to measure individual investors' realized risk-adjusted performance in structured financial products, which represent one of the key financial innovations in recent times. Based on a large database of trades and portfolio holdings for 10,652 retail investors in discount...

This paper shows that firms talking less about the future in their annual reports generate positive abnormal returns of about 5% annually. I measure how much companies talk about the future in their annual 10-K reports by the frequency of the verbs will, shall, and going to. The evidence favors...

We experimentally investigate how the content presented by the news media affects investor expectations and beliefs. We ask subjects to estimate the future stock price for twelve real (anonymous) listed companies. They received information about historical stock prices and extracts from real...