We study the predictability of stock returns using an iterative model-building approach known as quantile boosting. Examining alternative return quantiles that represent normal, bull and bear markets via recursive quantile regressions, we trace the predictive value of extensively studied...

This paper examines the predictive power of the U.S. term structure over return volatility in emerging stock markets. Decomposing the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields into two components, the expectations factor and the maturity premium, we show that the U.S. term structure indeed contains...

This paper explores whether firm characteristics matter in determining the effect of investor herding on asset returns. We find that the level of herding alone does not command a significant effect on industry returns, implied by insignificant return spreads between industries that experience...