Purpose: This paper examines the associative and causal relationship between changes in the implied volatility index (VIX) and stock market returns, with data from 15 countries representing both developed and emerging economies.1 We also examine the dynamic variation, if any in the nature of the...

Recent literature show that leverage has a negative effect on stock returns, which is contradicting with influential finance theories and models. Based on the time-period 1966-2015, the five-factor model and an international dataset, this thesis sets the focus on the question what kind of effect...

We extract contextualized representations of news text to predict returns using the state-of-the-art large language models in natural language processing. Unlike the traditional bag-of-words approach, the contextualized representation captures both the syntax and semantics of text, thus...

We establish the financial materiality of temperature variability by demonstrating its impact on US firms and investors. A long-short strategy that sorts firms based on exposure earns a market-adjusted alpha of 39 basis points per month. This variability metric is related to aggregate decreases...

The goal of this paper is to show that the growth rate of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has predictive ability for a range of stock markets, which is demonstrated through in-sample tests and out-of-sample statistics.The documented stock return predictability is also of economic significance, as...

The goal of this paper is to show that the growth rate of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has predictive ability for a range of stock markets, which is demonstrated through in-sample tests and out-of-sample statistics.The documented stock return predictability is also of economic significance, as...

We distinguish between ”good” and ”bad” carry trades constructed from G-10 currencies. The good trades exhibit higher Sharpe ratios and sometimes positive return skewness, in contrast to the bad trades that have both substantially lower Sharpe ratios and highly negative return skewness....