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We investigate the question of whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914124
This paper evaluates whether the primary and secondary dissemination of earnings forecast revisions by security …) of trading strategies based on the nonpublic knowledge of forecast revisions. For a sample of 288 weekly earnings … forecast revisions, the results were consistent with the hypothesis that early knowledge of forecast revisions could be used to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053009
This paper relates predictable gains from positions in fed funds futures contracts to violations of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Although evidence for predictable gains from positions in short-horizon contracts is mixed, we find that gains in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025864
This study examines the relationship between components of OCI and analysts' forecasting behaviour, being forecast … negatively associated with forecast accuracy and herding. We also find that available for sale (AFS) amounts are positively … associated with forecast accuracy, herding and analyst following. Together with prior evidence, our findings provide empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872055
This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441139
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better understand how financial analysts forecast earnings. We focus on forecasts for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs … regression analysis finds that the severity of the pandemic increases analysts' forecast error and dispersion. Government … forecast error rises by more, for REITs, when focusing on Hospitality and Industrial properties, and dispersion rises by more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628786
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014487054
We show that there is strong commonality in the volatility of a wide range of diversified equity portfolios. Common factor volatility (CFV) exists even when factor or anomaly returns are market-adjusted and does not appear to be attributable to common microstructure noise or a lack of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833463