This paper considers an institutional investor who is implementing a long-term portfolio allocation strategy using forecasts of financial returns. We compare the performance of two competing macro-finance models, an unrestricted Vector AutoRegression (VAR) and a fully structural Dynamic...

We test the implications of the return decomposition of Campbell (1991), in which the unexpected market return is decomposed into cash-flow and discount-rate news. Unlike most of the previous literature, which uses VAR models to implement the return decomposition, we propose a state-space model...

This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government bond yields by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on empirical prior. Different from the traditional variable selection approach which advocates finding an...