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index returns. The proposed models capture key stylized facts of such returns, namely heavy tails, asymmetry, volatility … asymmetric. Volatility is modeled parametrically. The new model is applied to the daily returns of the S\&P 500, FTSE 100, and … EUROSTOXX 50 indices and is compared to GARCH, Stochastic Volatility, and other Bayesian semi-parametric models …
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During the past decades, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) had become one of a prevalent linear models in time series and forecasting. Empirical research advocated that forecasting with non-linear models can be an encouraging alternative to traditional linear models....
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