This paper performs a two-stage methodology based on the Structural VAR and time-varying parameter regression models to examine the dynamic reaction of a set of oil-related countries' stock markets to oil price shocks. Oil prices are studied by disentangling demand and supply shocks. Based on...

We study whether stock market returns in oil-exporting countries can be predicted by oil price changes, and we investigate the link between predictability and the quality of each country's institutions. Returns are predictable for half the countries we consider, and predictability is stronger...