This article estimates the financial return provided by the Spanish pension system for a sample of new retirees in 2017, calculated on the basis of the Muestra Continua de Vidas Laborales. The findings show an average real annual return (understood as the discount factor that equates the present...

Households face earnings risk which is non-normal and varies by age and over the income distribution. We show that allowing for these rich features of earnings dynamics, in the context of a structurally estimated life-cycle portfolio choice model, helps to rationalize the limited participation...

We model uncertainty of financial parameters and examine its impact on the replacement rate in a DC pension contract. To this end, we develop a novel Bayesian framework that reveals substantial reduction in the lower percentiles for the replacement rate at retirement. We identify that the key...