The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen-dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the...

We develop an empirical model of exchange rate returns, applied separately to samples of developed (DM) and developing (EM) economies' currencies against the dollar. Monetary policy stance of the global central banks, measured via a natural-language-based approach, has a large effect on exchange...

In this paper, we study the effectiveness of carry trade strategies during and after the financial crisis using a flexible approach to modeling currency returns. We decompose the currency returns into multiplicative sign and absolute return components, which exhibit much greater predictability...

This paper uses time-varying second moments to investigate exchange rate exposure betas. Using a BEKK-GARCH(1,21)-M model, time-varying exchange rate exposure betas are obtained with explicit focus on the non-orthogonality between exchange rate changes and market returns. We look into certain...

A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...

A practice that has become widespread is that of comparing forecasts of financial return variability obtained from discrete time models against high frequency estimates based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial return variability modelling this raises several methodological and...

In this paper, the effects of the US stock market returns, exchange rate changes and volatilities on stock market volatilities in 10 emerging market economies between 2000-2013 (also two sub-periods covering the time between 2000-2007, and between 2008-2013) have been analysed with separate 30...

In a no-arbitrage framework, any variable that affects the pricing of the domestic yield curve has the potential to predict foreign exchange risk premiums. The most widely used interest rate predictor is the difference in short rates across countries, known as carry, but the short rate is only...

We propose a simple identification scheme for the causes of the violations of uncovered interest parity. Our method uses the serial dependence patterns of excess returns as a criterion for judging performance of economic models. We show that a mean reverting component in excess returns,...

This paper examines the adequacy of the exposure coefficient/beta in measuring the entire impact of exchange rate changes on firms' future operating cash flows. To this end, we investigate the presence of four elements of exchange rate exposure: (a) sensitivity of stock returns to exchange rate...