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variance premium, an increase in the 10-year term premium, an increase in short-run inflation expectations, as well as a dollar …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013236450
We investigate both theoretically and empirically how unemployment level and its growth affect future stock returns. We find that both a higher unemployment rate and higher growth of unemployment positively predict future stock market returns. In our model, the effects come through their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014352081
solutions, all have failed as these attempts implicitly assume perfectly-correct inflation statistics. Examining these … assumptions, we discover that not only are the inflation numbers materially flawed, but more so, there are significant incentives … for government entities to under-report inflation. With this, we find that to explain the Equity Premium Puzzle, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838903
I construct a no-arbitrage term structure model with endogenous regime shifts and apply it to Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. This application subjects the short-term interest rate to monetary regime shifts, such as a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and normal regimes, which depend on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974584
and beyond their information content on future inflation and future activity. This result, obtained in a GMM framework, is … error in forecasting output and inflation increases. In this sense, the Fed's preemptive easings - despite their short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136336
(Applied Financial Economics, 13, 693-700, 2003) on inflation and output on stock returns and volatility is extended by … including interest rate to compare the effect between three mature markets (US, Japan and Singapore) and four crisis experienced … inflation, output growth, and interest rate, has weak predictor power on stock market volatility and returns. In line with the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143522
evidence for monetary policy and inflation expectations with a special emphasis on market-specific characteristics that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575
Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when … countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy … regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306755
We analyze the period before the zero lower bound and show that the state of investor sentiment strongly affects the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market. The impact of Federal funds rate (FFR) surprises is mostly potent when sentiment-driven overvaluation is followed by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013221160
The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of monetary policy on equity returns by applying an alternative econometric approach. Campbell and Ammer (1993) decomposed unexpected equity excess returns into three news components: risk premium news, real interest rate news and cash-flow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012658788