Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) provides an elegant mathematical framework for the efficient portfolio allocation problem. Despite its exceptional popularity, MPT poses a number of well-documented problems in practical applications. Especially the fact that it generates notoriously extreme and...

We consider a stochastic volatility model of the mean-reverting type to describe the evolution of a firm’s values instead of the classical approach by Merton with geometric Brownian motions. We develop an analytical expression for the default probability. Our simulation results indicate that...

Bayesian inference in a time series model provides exact, out-of-sample predictive distributions that fully and coherently incorporate parameter uncertainty. This study compares and evaluates Bayesian predictive distributions from alternative models, using as an illustration five alternative...