We compare the stock return forecasting performance of alternative payout yields. The net payout yield produces more accurate forecasts relative to alternatives, including the traditional dividend yield. This remains true even after excluding several years during the Great Depression when...

We show that log-dividends (d) and log-prices (p) are cointegrated, but, instead of de facto assuming the stationarity of the classical log dividend–price ratio, we allow the data to reveal the cointegration vector between d and p. We define the modified dividend–price ratio (mdp), as the...

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option implied variables for monthly S & P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) emerges as a strong predictor of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample....

This paper mainly focuses on the correlation between live hedge funds return and their value at risk (VaR), which is based on the historical data from May 2000 to April 2010. The authors adopt portfolio level analyses and fund level cross-sectional regression, and find that there is significant...

We find that the performance distribution of the individual stocks inside a mutual fund can toss out additional information about the fund manager's stock picking ability. When a mutual fund contains mostly mediocre-performing stocks but one super-performer, it is likely that the overall fund...

Since Markowitz (1958) and Sharpe (1966), the increasing number of criteria and performance indicators made mutual funds analysis more complex and sometimes risky. In this study we propose to identify the most relevant indicators to classify mutual funds based on their statistical properties....

This paper deals with the estimation of portfolio returns and Value at Risk (VaR), by using a class of Gaussian mixture distributions. Asset return distributions are frequently assumed to follow a normal or log normal distribution. It also can follow Brownian motion or Geometric Brownian motion...

This paper presents an option positioning that allows us to infer forward variances from option portfolios. The forward variances we construct from equity index options help to predict (i) growth in measures of real economic activity, (ii) Treasury bill returns, (iii) stock market returns, and...

The correlation of returns for various equity asset classes has been high. In addition, the range or "dispersion" of returns across asset classes - and across sectors within those asset classes - has been low. These factors have made it difficult for active managers to outperform. But dispersion...

This paper aims to analyze so-called anomalies or additional risk factors (other than market risk) on the Hong Kong stock exchange. To do so, we first select arbitrarily several factors that we a priori believe to be significant, we then collect the data and evaluate the returns associated with...