This paper evaluates if sentiment extracted from social media and options volume anticipates future asset return. Using both textual based data and a particular market data derived call-put ratio, between July 2009 and September 2012, this research shows that: 1) features derived from market...

This article aims to extend evaluation of the classic multifactor model of Carhart (1997) for the case of global equity indices and to expand analysis performed in Sakowski et. al. (2015). Our intention is to test several modifications of these models to take into account different dynamics of...

Although the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) has gained increasing attention among investors, the extent to which ESG is compensated systematically in the market remains to be investigated. On the outperformance of responsible investing (RI) which incorporates ESG into investment...

We present effective momentum strategies over the liquid equity futures market in India. We evaluate and determine the persistence of the returns at various look-backs ranging from quarterly and weekly to more granular look-backs. We look at a universe of the liquid equity instruments traded...

Guarantees embedded variable annuity contracts exhibit option-like payoff features and the pricing of such instruments naturally leads to risk neutral valuation techniques. This paper considers the pricing of two types of guarantees; namely, the Guaranteed Minimum Maturity Benefit and the...

We derive a model of bond pricing under ambiguity, showing that ambiguity interacts with risk to determine spreads. Since default is an inherently "unfavorable" outcome, ambiguity-averse bondholders overweigh its probability and demand higher yields for bonds with higher ambiguity.Empirically,...

We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional...

Adaptive Polar Sampling (APS) is proposed as a Markov chain Monte Carlomethod for Bayesian analysis of models with ill-behaved posteriordistributions. In order to sample efficiently from such a distribution,a location-scale transformation and a transformation to polarcoordinates are used. After...

Using equations that arise in quantum mechanics, this paper describes a way to more accurately and efficiently represent non-Gaussian return distributions than the standard method of invoking skewness and kurtosis. Then, it provides a new single intuitive number, defined here as the “crash...

A large number of exact inferential procedures in statistics and econometrics involve the sampling distribution of ratios of random variables. If the denominator variable is positive, then tail probabilities of the ratio can be expressed as those of a suitably defined difference of random...