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We examine the connection between tail risk — as measured in Kelly and Jiang (2014) — and the cross-section of expected returns. In conditional predictive regression systems and vector-autoregressions of the market portfolio and the long- and shoresides of the Fama-French factor portfolios,...
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the highest financial damages. Using a comprehensive future flood risk measure matched to bank holding companies in the … United States, I find that a higher exposure to future flood risk results in higher excess returns. This is consistent with … smaller and less levered banks. Furthermore, I construct a flood risk factor from bank returns that cannot be entirely …
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loans in census tracts with extended flood zones. This is associated with lower and more volatile returns, particularly for … small business lending. I find that not all lending originated in the flood zone can lead to worse performance. Banks that …
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