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extended beyond the preceding period. We show that change in four-year consumption growth---the measure of consumption … coefficient much lower than any existing consumption measures under the standard consumption model. This outperformance of our …-year consumption growth encompasses other consumption measures in explaining the cross-sectional variation of expected returns on …
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We show that a business-cycle component of consumption growth (dubbed business-cycle consumption) with cycles between 2 … aggregation of returns and consumption growth over suitable horizons. Consistent with our formalization, we show that the factor … loadings associated with consumption growth aggregated over a 2-year horizon have similar pricing ability as those associated …
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The ratio of consumption to total household wealth (i.e., tangible assets plus unobserved human wealth) is commonly … calculated from the estimation of a log-linear version of the household intertemporal budget constraint as a cointegrating … relationship between consumption, assets and earnings (i.e., the variable "cay"). The evidence in favor of a stable cointegrating …
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Standard applications of the consumption-based asset pricing model assume that goods and services within the nondurable … consumption bundle are substitutes. We estimate substitution elasticities between different consumption bundles and show that … households cannot substitute energy consumption by consumption of other nondurables. As a consequence, energy consumption affects …
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Using a novel measure of industry exposure to government spending, we document predictable variation in cash flows and stock returns over political cycles. During Democratic presidencies, firms with high government exposure experience higher cash flows and stock returns, while the opposite...
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