I have used four measures that have had considerable success in predicting stock market declines of ten percent or more and average twenty-five percent. Other declines of 5-15% seem to be hard to predict ex ante, while some can be explained ex post. In this paper, I focus on six of the latter...

We empirically investigate the relation between anomaly portfolio returns and market return predictability in the Chinese stock market. Using 132 long-leg, short-leg, and long-short anomaly portfolio returns, we employ several shrinkage-based statistical learning methods to capture predictive...

Based on Jiang, Kelly, and Xiu (JKX, 2021), we propose a new machine learning model to predict future returns using the price images in the Chinese stock market. We show that our model can achieve a more accurate out-of-sample prediction of a stock’s future return than a traditional model. The...