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This paper investigates the relationships among cross-sectional stock returns and analysts' forecast revisions …, forecast dispersion and momentum. Market rewards the strategy in pursuit of revision up and away from revision down by 22 …-2015 periods. Revision up and revision down betas account for most of the momentum strategy and over half of forecast dispersion …
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I use controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast precision and forecast uncertainty on … investor judgments. I find that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast … reliability judgments such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgments of forecast reliability are more …
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information from various financial and macroeconomic variables relevant for return prediction and the diffusion indexes can … regression methods to combine forecasts comparable to the dynamic factor predictive model such as the forecast combination method …
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We investigate the question of whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of...
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