This paper proposes a novel approach to provide directional forecasts for carry trade strategies; this approach is based on Support VectorMachines (SVM), a Learning algorithm which delivers extremely promising results. Building on recent findings of the literature on carry trade we condition the...

The identification of the forces that drive stock returns and the dynamics of their associated volatilities is a major concern in empirical economics and finance. This analysis is particularly relevant for determining optimal hedging strategies based on whether shocks to the volatilities of...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that...

This paper analyses futures prices for four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) and five agricultural commodities (corn, oats, soybean oil, soybeans and wheat), over the period 1986-2010. Using CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models, we find that...

Our study contributes to the literature in two directions. First, we investigate the behaviour of futures prices returns for different energy and agricultural commodities, over the period 1986-2010. Second, we measure the market vulnerability to financial speculation for energy commodities over...

This paper provides an analysis of the link between the oil market and the U.S. stock market returns at the aggregate as well as industry levels. We empirically model oil price changes as driven by speculative demand shocks along with consumption demand and supply shocks in the oil market. We...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between different types of uncertainty and stock returns of the renewable energy and the oil & gas sectors. We use the quantile regression approach developed by Koenker and d’Orey (1987; 1994) to assess which uncertainties are the potential...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between different types of uncertainty and stock returns of the renewable energy and the oil & gas sectors. We use the quantile regression approach developed by Koenker and d'Orey (1987; 1994) to assess which uncertainties are the potential...