We outline a systematic approach to incorporate macroeconomic information into firm level forecasting from the perspective of an equity investor. Using a global sample of 198,315 firm-years over the 1998-2010 time period, we find that combining firm level exposures to countries (via geographic...

In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more credible forecasts are associated with a larger reaction in the short...

The authors synthesized and extended recent research demonstrating that investor recognition is a distinct, significant determinant of stock price movements. Realized stock returns are strongly positively related to changes in investor recognition, and expected returns are strongly negatively...

We synthesize and extend recent research demonstrating that investor recognition is a distinct and significant determinant of stock price movements. Realized stock returns are strongly positively related to changes in investor recognition and expected returns are strongly negatively related to...

We present a simple, linear asset pricing model of the cross section of Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) returns. MBS earn risk premia as compensation for theirexposure to prepayment risk. We measure prepayment risk and estimate security riskloadings using real data on prepayment forecasts vs....