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Price dividend ratio and long-run stock returns : a score driven state space model

Delle Monache, Davide; Petrella, Ivan; Venditti, Fabrizio - 2020

In this paper we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with timevarying system matrices where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012156426

Using Sentiment to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns

Guzman, Giselle - 2012

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110894

Inflation uncertainty and disagreement in bond risk premia

D'Amico, Stefania; Orphanides, Athanasios - 2014

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441139

Economically-Linked Economies and Forecasting Chinese Stock Returns

Jordan, Steven J. - 2012

We explore whether economic links via trade affect aggregate Chinese stock market returns. We find that market return indices from countries that China net exports from can forecast the Chinese aggregate market return at the weekly time horizon. Countries that China net exports to have no...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098289

Equity premium predictability over the business cycle

Mönch, Emanuel; Stein, Tobias - 2021

The equity premium follows a pronounced v-shape pattern around the beginning of recessions. It sharply drops into negative territory just before business cycle peaks and then strongly recovers as the recession unfolds. Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve. Thus probit models using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012607106

Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns

Babiak, Mykola; Baruník, Jozef - 2021

We study dynamic portfolio choice of a long-horizon investor who uses deep learning methods to predict equity returns when forming optimal portfolios. Our results show statistically and economically significant benefits from using deep learning to form optimal portfolios through certainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013225327

Equity Premium Predictability Over the Business Cycle

Moench, Emanuel; Stein, Tobias - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213126

Has COVID-19 changed the stock return-oil price predictability pattern?

Zhang, Fan; Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Devpura, Neluka - In: Financial innovation : FIN 7 (2021), pp. 1-10

In this paper, we examine if COVID-19 has impacted the relationship between oil prices and stock returns predictions using daily Japanese stock market data from 01/04/2020 to 03/17/2021. We make a novel contribution to the literature by testing whether the COVID-19 pandemic has changed this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012617355

Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility : international evidence

Davis, Nicole; Kutan, Ali Mustafa - In: Applied financial economics 13 (2003) 9, pp. 693-700

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001776863

Generalized dynamic factor model + GARCH exploiting multivariate information for univariate prediction

Alessi, Lucia (contributor); Barigozzi, Matteo (contributor) - 2007

We propose a new model for volatility forecasting which combines the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) and the GARCH model. The GDFM, applied to a large number of series, captures the multivariate information and disentangles the common and the idiosyncratic part of each series of returns....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003321460

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