We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

This paper provides evidence regarding the performance of momentum investment strategies that is consistent with neoclassical theory. More specifically, while momentum investment returns appear orthogonal to systematic risk in the extant literature, this paper illustrates that they due to...

We investigate the movements of the yield curve after the release of major U.S. macroeconomic announcements through the lenses of an arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model with macroeconomic fundamentals. Combining estimated yield responses obtained using high-frequency data with model...

Financial markets have experienced unprecedented transformations, signs of which have emerged since the late 1970s. In recent years substantial consolidation occurred. In response to changes in macroeconomic variables, such as GDP, industrial production, inflation and the political business...

All conceivable solutions to the internal rate of return equation are shown to have meaning as well as use. Internal rates of return are the units in which value is measured and the quantities of such units. This result implies a single internal rate of return cannot be an investment criterion....

This paper proposes a generalized arbitrage-free macro finance term structure model with both Nelson-Siegel latent yield factors and observable macro factors. Two subclasses are derived: spanned and unspanned models. In the spanned model, the yields are determined by both the Nelson-Siegel yield...

In the present paper the negative impact of interest rates on stock returns will be estimated for the European economies. Data are monthly during the year 2008 and cover the following countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. The elaboration of...

We test the out-of-sample predictive power for one-year bond excess returns for a variety of models that have been proposed in the literature. We find that these models perform well in sample, but have worse out-of-sample performance than the historical sample mean. We write the one-year excess...

We present evidence of significant bias in event studies that investigate the effect of U.S. monetary policy on U.S. stock prices. To overcome this bias, we propose a new identification method based on the "Impossible Trinity" theory which argues that an economy with a fixed exchange rate and...

A well-documented empirical result is that market expectations extracted from futures contracts on the federal funds rate are among the best predictors for the future course of monetary policy. We show how this information can be exploited to produce accurate forecasts of bond excess returns and...