We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag...

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...

We demonstrate that the parameters controlling skewness and kurtosis in popular equity return models estimated at daily frequency can be obtained almost as precisely as if volatility is observable by simply incorporating the strong information content of realized volatility measures extracted...

In this paper, we provide evidence on two alternative mechanisms of interaction between returns and volatilities: the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. We stress the importance of distinguishing between realized volatility and implied volatility, and find that implied...

Daul et al. (2003), Demarta and McNeil (2005) and Mcneil et al. (2005) underlined the ability of the grouped t-copula to take the tail dependence present in a large set of financial assets into account, particularly when the assumption of one global parameter for the degrees of freedom (as for...

Simulations of a model pension scheme are run with stochastic economic and demographic factors, with an aim to investigate the impact of these factors on movements in funding ratio and average contribution rates. These impacts are analyzed by running regressions of movements in funding ratio and...

A daily log-return can be regarded as a test statistic - specifically the (unscaled) sample mean of a sequence of intraday random variables. We discuss sufficient conditions for a dependent bootstrap to consistently and non-parametrically estimate the entire distribution of this “test...

We adapt an engineering performance metric, the Allan Variance, to evaluate financial time series over various time periods. We then apply this metric to financial time series returns to determine whether an investment strategy consistently beats the benchmark index or such investment strategy...

Recent contributions highlight the importance of intraday jumps in forecasting realized volatility at horizons up to one month. We extend the methodology developed in Maheu and McCurdy (2011) to exploit the information content of intraday data in forecasting the density of returns. Considering...