This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long-run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards commodity...

We combine recent developments on extracting jumps from high frequency stock index data with the literature on option pricing with time varying volatility to model S&P 500 index returns from 2005. We compare the fit of several GARCH models, with and without jumps, from the historical return...