This paper characterizes the risk-return trade-off in the U.S. Treasury market. We propose a discrete-time no-arbitrage term structure model, in which bond prices are solved in closed form and the conditional variances of bond yields are decomposed into a short-run component and a long-run...

This paper adopts a novel approach to studying the evolution of interest rate term structure over the U.S. business cycles and to predicting recessions. Applying an effective algorithm, I classify the Treasury yield curve into distinct shapes and find the less frequent shapes intrinsically...

We develop a conditional factor model for the term structure of treasury bonds, which unifies non parametric curve estimation with cross-sectional asset pricing. Our factors correspond to the optimal non-parametric basis functions spanning the discount curve. They are investable portfolios...

We study the joint determinants of stock and bond returns in a long-run risks model framework with regime shifts in consumption and inflation dynamics. In particular, the means, volatilities, and the correlation structure between consumption growth and inflation are regime-dependent. This...

This study examines the ability of interest rates, as measured by Treasury bill yields, to track expected monthly, quarterly and annual returns in the Sri Lankan stock market during the 1990-97 period. Different from the findings in most prior studies on foreign markets, the results indicate a...

Various macroeconomic announcements are known to influence asset price volatility. While contemplating the impact of a variety of macro news surprises, we highlight the importance of Treasury auctions – a news event that has ramifications for interest rates across the economy and which are...

We link equity and treasury bond markets via an informational channel. When macroeconomic state shifts are more probable, informed traders are more likely to have valid signals about fundamentals, so that uninformed traders are less willing to trade against informed ones. This implies low volume...

In this paper we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data-rich and unstable environment. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor model is extended to allow the model dimension and the parameters to change over time, in order to account for both model uncertainty and sudden...

We study the role of co-jumps in the interest rate futures markets. To disentangle continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, we localize the co-jumps precisely through wavelet coefficients and identify statistically significant ones. Using high frequency data about U.S. and...