This paper evaluates if sentiment extracted from social media and options volume anticipates future asset return. Using both textual based data and a particular market data derived call-put ratio, between July 2009 and September 2012, this research shows that: 1) features derived from market...

We examine the long-term relationship between signals derived from nine years of unstructured social media microblog text data and financial market developments in five major economic regions. Employing statistical language modeling techniques we construct directional sentiment metrics and link...

Using a novel and direct measure of investor sentiment, I find that Facebook's Gross National Happiness (GNH) has the ability to predict changes in both daily returns and trading volume in the US stock market. For instance, an increase of one standard deviation in GNH is associated with an...

Using a novel and direct measure of investor sentiment, I find that Facebook's Gross National Happiness (GNH) has the ability to predict changes in both daily returns and trading volume in the US stock market. For instance, an increase of one standard deviation in GNH is associated with an...

Social media has become a popular venue for individuals to share the results of their own analysis on financial securities. This paper investigates the extent to which investor opinions transmitted through social media predict future stock returns and earnings surprises. We conduct textual...

I develop a model of investor behavior around prescheduled macroeconomic announcements. My model analyzes the optimal allocation of investor attention between systematic and idiosyncratic risk factors when a macroeconomic announcement is anticipated. Skilled investors, when producing information...

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...

We argue that the tax capitalization effect is a function of the attention of market participants. Market reactions can therefore be driven not only by the announcement dates of tax events but also by factors influencing the dissemination of tax information, such as deadlines and media reports....

The present study explores the effect of the gambler’s fallacy on stock trading volumes. I hypothesize that if a stock’s price rises (falls) during a number of consecutive trading days, then the gambler’s fallacy may cause at least some of the investors to expect that the stock’s price...