We investigate the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the time series variation of Chinese stock market expected returns. Using the news based measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), we find that EPU predicts negatively future stock market return at various horizons. This...

We reaffirm the stylized fact that bond risk premia are time-varying with macroeconomic condition, even with real-time macro data instead of commonly used final revised data. While real-time data are noisier and render standard forecasts insignificant, we find that, with four efficient...

We study which characteristics provide incremental predictive information for the cross-section of expected returns in the Chinese stock market. Our results provide empirical evidence for strong nonlinear relations between expected returns and selected characteristics, especially in the trading...

We study which characteristics provide incremental predictive information for the cross-section of expected returns in the Chinese stock market. Our results provide empirical evidence for strong nonlinear relations between expected returns and selected characteristics, especially in the Trading...

We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...

While numerous studies have analyzed the asset allocation issue of US stock market from various angles, much less attention has been paid to the asset allocation issue of Chinese stock market. This article investigates the asset allocation in Chinese stock market from a perspective of...

We propose a new investor sentiment index that is aligned with the purpose of predicting the aggregate stock market. By eliminating a common noise component in sentiment proxies, the new index has much greater predictive power than existing sentiment indices both in- and out-of-sample, and the...