Showing 1 - 10 of 5,257
This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441139
We investigate the question of whether macroeconomic variables contain information about future stock volatility beyond that contained in past volatility. We show that forecasts of GDP growth from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters predict volatility in a cross-section of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011914124
This study examines the relationship between components of OCI and analysts' forecasting behaviour, being forecast … negatively associated with forecast accuracy and herding. We also find that available for sale (AFS) amounts are positively … associated with forecast accuracy, herding and analyst following. Together with prior evidence, our findings provide empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012872055
We use learning in an equilibrium model to explain the puzzling predictive power of the volatility risk premium (VRP) for option returns. In the model, a representative agent follows a rational Bayesian learning process in an economy under incomplete information with the objective of pricing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892623
analysts observe the actions of investors and other analysts in order to more accurately forecast earnings and have the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014224917
empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556115
forecast disclosure only accrue to bidders with a strong forecasting reputation prior to the acquisition. Explaining why not … all bidders forecast, we document a higher likelihood of post-merger litigation and CEO turnover for bidders with a weak …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905443
I use controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast precision and forecast uncertainty on … investor judgments. I find that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast … reliability judgments such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgments of forecast reliability are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238623
better understand how financial analysts forecast earnings. We focus on forecasts for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs … regression analysis finds that the severity of the pandemic increases analysts' forecast error and dispersion. Government … forecast error rises by more, for REITs, when focusing on Hospitality and Industrial properties, and dispersion rises by more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628786
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012624639