Appendix is available at: "https://ssrn.com/abstract=3395415" https://ssrn.com/abstract=3395415Identifying firm connections by shared analyst coverage, we find that a connected-firm (CF) momentum factor generates a monthly alpha of 1.68% (t = 9.67). In spanning regressions, the alphas of...

This paper shows that analyst recommendations aggregated at the country level predict international stock market returns. A trading strategy based on past country-level recommendations yields an abnormal return of around 0.9 percent per month. Aggregate analyst recommendations also predict...

Measuring the information environment of firms using analyst (price) forecast bias and forecast dispersion before listing, we empirically examine the interactive influence of the information environment and market-wide sentiment on the initial returns of initial public offerings (IPOs). We find...

This paper examines the temporal relationship between sin stocks and investor sentiment using vector autoregressive models. It decomposes sin returns into a market-based and pure sin component and then performs dynamic statistical modeling on the pure sin portfolio. Next, it attempts to...

I hypothesize that the stock market overreacts to management earnings forecasts because of the uncertainty surrounding them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a –5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1.9% correction in the 2-month period after earnings are...

We assess investment value of sell-side analyst recommendations from the standpoint of portfolio risk. We match I/B/E/S consensus recommendations issued for U.S.-listed equities during January 2015 with realized volatility of daily security returns up to one year following recommendation issue....

We show analytically under quite general conditions that implied rates of return based on analysts' earnings forecasts are only a downward biased estimator for future expected one-period returns and therefore not suited for computing market risk premia. The extent of this bias is substantial as...

The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD) and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill...

This study tests the performance of stock market forecasts derived from technical analysis by means of a specific indicator. The indicator is computed from E/P ratios and bond yields. Several stock markets are studied over a 20-year period. Two test statistics are introduced to utilize the...

We test the implications of anchoring bias associated with forecast earnings per share (FEPS) for forecast errors, earnings surprises, stock returns, and stock splits. We find that analysts make optimistic (pessimistic) forecasts when a firm's FEPS is lower (higher) than the industry median....