Leiss, Matthias; Nax, Heinrich H.; Sornette, Didier - 2014
We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013 …. We evaluate a "real-minus-implied risk premium", defined as the difference between real and option-implied returns, which … reveals a doubling of the risk-aversion of investors, from 8% in the pre-crisis to 16% in the post-crisis period. Granger …