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Empirical research on the benefits of investing in inflation-linked bonds usually relies on a limited number of … observations due to the relatively recent introduction of these assets. We estimate models for the break-even inflation rate and … use these to create hypothetical inflation-linked bond returns. We compare these with the return on actual inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012934959
solutions, all have failed as these attempts implicitly assume perfectly-correct inflation statistics. Examining these … assumptions, we discover that not only are the inflation numbers materially flawed, but more so, there are significant incentives … for government entities to under-report inflation. With this, we find that to explain the Equity Premium Puzzle, inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838903
In many countries, collective funded pension schemes with defined benefits (DB) are being replaced by individual schemes with defined contributions. Collective funded DB pensions may indeed reduce social welfare. This will be the case when the schemes feature income-related contributions that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014192852
In a two-country portfolio model with leverage constraints, I focus on private assets in order to understand how their behaviour can justify an expected excess return as well as the flight-to-safety observed in the data. The specific goal is to study how much these phenomena are explained by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009490157
We introduce a portfolio friction in a two-country DSGE model where investors face a constant probability to make new portfolio decisions. The friction leads to a more gradual portfolio adjustment to shocks and a weaker portfolio response to changes in expected excess returns. We apply the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012801368
We inspect the price volatility before, during, and after financial asset bubbles in order to uncover possible commonalities and check empirically whether volatility might be used as an indicator or an early warning signal of an unsustainable price increase and the associated crash. Some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011762277
We show in a simple framework that momentum trading can exist in equilibrium and momentum trading is profitable. Properties of the model fit the empirics well. First, the model captures in a parsimonious manner both short-term overreaction and long-term reversals. Second, it predicts that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089438
We examine the impact of expected inflation on stock returns. We use inflation forecasts from the Focus survey and real … $ percentage point in expected inflation for the next 12 months is associated with a decline of $ 0.57 $ percentage points in stock … based on changes in inflation expectations from 2003 to 2016 has cumulated real returns of $ 135 $ percent while cumulated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919197
We study the relation between US inflation and the performance of global asset classes (including bonds, stocks … recent 30 years (1991–2020). We find that most assets had positive average real returns in both low- and high-inflation years …. While average real returns were lower in years with higher inflation for most assets, many of the differences are not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219638
by modelling the time-varying dynamics of asset returns and inflation, and then estimating the cost of hedging in ation … inflation risks are not necessarily reduced with the inclusion of real estate assets in the minimum variance portfolio. Our … investors for holding the less attractive inflation-linked debt asset. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241109