Dynamic average correlations of stock returns are predicted by the volatility of the market excess return and moving average returns of value, size and momentum portfolios. While the influence of market volatility on average correlation is well-known, the role of value, size and momentum appears...

We develop a new variational Bayes estimation method for large-dimensional sparse vector autoregressive models with exogenous predictors. Unlike existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational Bayes (VB) algorithms, our approach is not based on a structural form representation of the...

This study investigated how stock market volatility responded dynamically to unexpected changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting uncertainty in Thailand. Using a multivariate GARCH-BEKK model, the conditional volatility dynamics, the interlinkages, and the conditional correlations...