We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...

We combine two approaches to the pricing kernel, one empirical and one theoretical, which relax the restriction that the objective return distribution and risk neutral distribution share the same volatility and higher order moments. The empirical approach provides estimates for the evolution of...

Does morality in business affect investors’ choice of stocks? Building on the source preference literature, we propose a novel measure of moral stock preference and offer a nested model relating it to social preference, attention to corporate social responsibility (CSR), and belief bias. We...

Many models of investor behavior predict that investors prefer assets that they believe to have positively skewed return distributions. We provide a direct test of this prediction in a representative sample of the Dutch population. Using individual-level data on return expectations for a broad...

We examine whether initial returns influence investors' decisions to return to the stock market following withdrawal. Using a survival analysis technique to estimate Finnish retail investors' likelihood of stock market re-entry reveals that investors who experience lower initial returns are less...

This paper shows investors' lottery preference can attenuate price underreaction to extreme good earnings news. Such news reaffirms investors' preference for stocks with strong ex ante lottery-like features, thereby accelerating price adjustments. We find that PEAD attenuates for stocks with...

These days it's become convention (reinforced by the media's treatment of wealth) to assess our net worth by tallying up the market value of our financial assets, even though it's more natural and useful to think of our wealth as a stream of dollars over time given the nature of our income and...

We find that when measured in terms of dollar-turnover, and once beta-neutralised and Low-Vol neutralised, the Size Effect is alive and well. With a long term t-stat of 5.1, the “Cold-Minus-Hot” (CMH) anomaly is certainly not less significant than other well-known factors such as Value or...

You're probably familiar, at least in passing, with the 'convexity' of long-term bonds - i.e. that yields dropping 1% produce a bigger price move than yields rising 1%. A significant amount of brainpower has gone into understanding all the ramifications of this convexity in the fixed income...

News and sentiment in news often influence financial markets and asset prices. While this is well-recognized by investors, only few studies have used sentiment in news to predict future developments in financial markets to formulate alpha generating strategies, let alone create a best practice...