We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...

We combine two approaches to the pricing kernel, one empirical and one theoretical, which relax the restriction that the objective return distribution and risk neutral distribution share the same volatility and higher order moments. The empirical approach provides estimates for the evolution of...

Does morality in business affect investors’ choice of stocks? Building on the source preference literature, we propose a novel measure of moral stock preference and offer a nested model relating it to social preference, attention to corporate social responsibility (CSR), and belief bias. We...

Using a large and long sample of US and European mutual funds we examine the impact that the membership of a fund family has on performance. We test for strategic and competitive behaviour among family funds and whether this affects performance persistence and risk taking behaviour. We find no...

Neoclassical finance assumes that investors are Bayesian. In many realistic situations, Bayesian learning is challenging. Here, we consider investment opportunities that change randomly, while payoffs are observable only when invested. In a stylized version of the task, we wondered whether...

A lock-up agreement ensures that major shareholders retain significant economic interest in the companies following the IPOs. Rationally, these insiders will not adhere to the lock-up agreement unless the benefits of doing so can more than offset the costs. Therefore, in an environment...

We document an annual cycle in the U.S. Treasury market, with variation in mean monthly returns of over 80 basis points from peak to trough. This seasonal Treasury return pattern does not arise due to macroeconomic seasonalities, seasonal variation in risk, cross-hedging between equity and...

This study investigates the low-price effect on the Polish stock market. By adopting sorting, cross-sectional tests and checks of the monotonic relation, we have examined the performance of the portfolios formed on the prices of over 850 companies listed on the Polish stock market within the...

This study proposes that the performance of mutual fund managers is linked to how efficiently they allocate attention across assets in their investment set. Motivated by existing models of optimal portfolio choice and rational inattention, we posit that the efficiency of attention allocation...

We empirically identify stocks which make flows into mutual funds holding them more performance-sensitive, and show that fund managers dislike holding these stocks; these stocks earn positive abnormal returns of around 3.5% annually; and, the sensitivity premium has increased over time as the...