Expectations of risky bond payments are unobservable and recovery rates for sovereigns are hard to estimate because they have no contractual claims to defined assets and samples of defaults are limited. A geometric version of credit spread is used to derive expected payments, dependent on...

We examine the rate of return earned by global funds on equity investment in emerging markets (EMs) particularly the role played by sovereign credit risk. Changes in sovereign credit ratings (upgrades/downgrades) influence excess (over risk free rate) returns earned by foreign investors: lower...

In this paper we derive the measure of position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios from the currency option pricing model. The position-unwinding likelihood indicator is in nature driven by interest rate differential and currency volatility, and highly correlated with global...

Assessing and pricing country risk poses a considerable challenge to tactical asset allocation across national equity markets. This research examines the relationship between the country composite risk (together with its component risks related to: sovereign credit, currency, banking sector,...

A stock's return comes from two components, i.e., risk and risk premium of the stock. Therefore, differences in stock returns are due to differences in risks or risk premia or both. The paper addresses to the question why stock returns are different across countries using Blinder-Oaxaca...

The biggest and most well-known unsolved problem in academic finance is famously referred to as the Equity Premium Puzzle. It refers to the unexplained phenomenon that for over 100 years the average return on a well-diversified portfolio of equities has far outperformed that of risk-free,...