Ashley, Richard A.; Tsang, Kwok Ping - In: Econometrics : open access journal 2 (2014) 1, pp. 72-91
Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit can be a poor guide to actual forecasting effectiveness. However, post-sample model testing requires an often-consequential a priori partitioning of the data into an "in-sample"...