This paper estimates a nonlinear augmented New Keynesian Philips Curve for Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Regression model for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q2. The empirical evidence reveals the existence of two inflation regimes during the period under review. Food inflation, energy inflation,...

This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical...

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts that use activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips-curve-type model that results from averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of...

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian model averaging across different regression specifications selected from a set of potential predictors that includes lagged values of inflation, a host of real activity data,...

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated U.S. recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the U.S. economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal...

The concern that an economy could experience persistent stagnation, caused by a structural weakness of aggregate demand, goes back to Alvin Hansen's (1939) thesis of ‘secular stagnation'. Hansen's thesis has been revived in recent times, when it became clear that productivity and potential...

Modern Money Theory (MMT) has generated considerable scrutiny and discussions over the past decade. While it has gained some acceptance in the financial sector and among some politicians, it has come under strong criticisms from all sides of the academic spectrum and from conservative political...

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates...

India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other...

This paper shows that the effect of inflation on asset prices and real aggregates depends on the financial intermediation sector. When firms finance using nominal long-term debt issued by financial intermediaries, unexpected changes in inflation lead to a wealth transfer across sectors. Higher...