Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. While this statement is widely accepted in terms of a long-run relationship, the quantity theory has been made operational also for the short-run dynamics of inflation by so-called Pstar models. An error correction model with quarterly data for the Euro Area...

This paper deals with the estimation of employment equations for Germany, which are to be used for forecasting and simulation purposes. The authors estimate both single and system error correction equations for German working hours using quarterly raw data covering the period 1980:1-2004:2....

We examine two major topics in the field of cryptocurrencies. On the one hand, we investigate possible long-run equilibrium relationships among ten major cryptocurrencies by applying two different cointegration tests. This analysis aims at constructing cointegrated portfolios that enable...

We assume that some consistent estimator of an equilibrium relation between non-stationary fractionally integrated series is used in a first step to compute residuals (or differences thereof). We propose to apply the semiparametric log-periodogram regression to the (differenced) residuals in...

This paper revisits the fractional co-integrating relationship between ex-ante implied volatility and ex-post realized volatility. Previous studies on stock index options have found biases and inefficiencies in implied volatility as a forecast of future volatility. It is argued that the concept...

We examine a kernel regression smoother for time series that takes account of the error correlation structure as proposed by Xiao et al. (2008). We show that this method continues to improve estimation in the case where the regressor is a unit root or near unit root process.

We propose two robust bootstrap-based simultaneous inference methods for time series models featuring time-varying coefficients and conduct an extensive simulation study to assess their performance. Our exploration covers a wide range of scenarios, encompassing serially correlated,...

The possibility to measure the relative contribution of agents and exchanges to the price formation process in high-frequency financial markets acquired increasingly importance in the financial econometric literature. In this paper I propose to adopt fully data-driven approaches to identify...

We extend the analysis of Christoffersen and Diebold (1998) on long-run forecasting in cointegrated systems to multicointegrated systems. For the forecast evaluation we consider several loss functions, each of which has a particular interpretation in the context of stock-flow models where...