We consider a local Whittle analysis of a stationary fractionally cointegrated model. A two step estimator equivalent to the local Whittle QMLE is proposed to jointly estimate the integration orders of the regressors, the integration order of the errors, and the cointegration vector. The...

We propose a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test of the null hypothesis of cointegration in fractionally cointegrated models. The test statistic utilizes fully modified residuals to cancel the endogeneity and serial correlation biases, and we show that standard asymptotics apply. With i.i.d. Gaussian...

This paper presents tests of the Cagan hyperinflation-money demand model which have several advantages relative to those in the literature. They do not confound specification error and rational bubbles, are implementable with a linear procedure, and are frequently able to detect the periodically...

In this chapter, the necessary condition and the necessary and sufficient condition for purchasing power parity (PPP) are sequentially tested for fourteen bilateral exchange rates. This test is undertaken in the framework of subset vector error correction modelling (VECM) with zero coefficients....

This chapter reviews the principal methods used by researchers when forecasting seasonal time series. In addition, the often overlooked implications of forecasting and feedback for seasonal adjustment are discussed. After an introduction in Section 1, Section 2 examines traditional univariate...

The domestic Chilean wine market is examined through the estimation of an error correction model allowing for structural breaks in the cointegrating vector. Our findings support both parameter instability and one structural break in the long-run relationship in 1982. The wine demand becomes more...

This study explores the nexus between insurance penetration and economic development in Vietnam during the period 1996-2020. By utilising the Autoregressive Lagging Distribution Model - ARDL, we find uni-directional causality and positive impacts of insurance market development on economic...

This study investigates the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of KPSS-type cointegra-tion tests that use residuals from integrated and modified ordinary least squares estimations.The test statistic, denoted by KPSS^Fb is shown to provide a consistent test against the al-ternative of no...

The author shows that extending the estimation window prior to structural breaks in cointegrated systems can be beneficial for forecasting performance and highlights under which conditions. In doing so, the author generalizes the Pesaran and Timmermann (2005)’s forecast error decomposition and...