The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions on empirical modeling contrasting the 'theory first' versus the 'data first' perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

In this paper, we attempt to derive and test the role of energy prices on economic growth. We first developed a two-sector endogenous growth model, based on Rebelo (1991). We modified the model such that consumption goods sector uses energy as an input along with capital. The model allows us to...

Purpose - This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a...

This paper analyzes data from 107 countries, spanning 1971-2009, and grouped into three income-based panels to determine the direction and sign of panel long-run causality between transport energy consumption per capita and real GDP per capita. The methods employed address heterogeneity and (at...

The aim of this study was to examine the extent to which crime affects the components of aggregate demand and vice versa for the case of Mexico, using quarterly data for the number of homicides and the components of aggregate demand for the period from 1990 to 2010. We estimated a Vector Error...