The co-movement of US sovereign rates suggests a long-run equilibrium relationship.Traditional cointegrated systems need to assume that interest rates are unit roots and thus implying non-stationary and non-mean-reverting dynamics. We postulate and estimate a fractional cointegrated model...

This paper presents a novel theoretical and empirical approach to the analysis of long-run economic growth. It shows that most traditional theoretical models share the feature of pair-wise cointegration among the main variables. An augmented Kaldor model is proposed in contrast to the standard...

The paper consists of two parts devoted to the cause-effect dynamic models. In each part of the deterministic properties of the dynamic version of the model are presented. Thus, each of the considered dynamic models can be presented in the form of an equivalent for it the switching trend....

This paper develops a new methodology that makes use of the factor structure of large dimensional panels to understand the nature of non-stationarity in the data. We refer to it as PANIC - a 'Panel Analysis of Non-stationarity in Idiosyncratic and Common components'. PANIC consists of univariate...

The empirical growth literature has focused on capital accumulation but largely ignored productivity growth. To address this imbalance, we propose a methodology for analyzing productivity convergence based on frontier production functions. We examine whether departures from the frontier are...

A method for analyzing productivity convergence based on frontier production functions is proposed. It is examined whether departures from the frontier - country-level inefficiencies - exhibit long-run relationships and convergence. The method is applied to 1-digit industries of 14 OECD...

This paper models the long-run relationship between the Bureau De Change exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria in a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) framework using daily data that spans from Jan 1, 2014 to Jul 31, 2015. Modeling BDC exchange rate and external reserves...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...