In this paper we show the validity of the adaptive LASSO procedure in estimating stationary ARDL(p,q) models with GARCH innovations. We show that, given a set of initial weights, the adaptive Lasso selects the relevant variables with probability converging to one. Afterwards, we show that the...

The method for estimation and testing for cointegration put forward by Johansen assumes that the data are described by a vector autoregressive process. In this article we extend the data generating process to autoregressive moving average models without unit roots in the MA polynomial. We first...

Many macroeconomic and financial variables show highly persistent and correlated patterns but not necessarily cointegrated. Recently, Sun, Hsiao and Li (2010) propose using a semiparametric varying coefficient approach to capture correlations between integrated but non cointegrated variables....

All economists say that they want to take their models to the data. But with incomplete and highly imperfect data, doing so is difficult and requires carefully matching the assumptions of the model with the statistical properties of the data. The cointegrated VAR (CVAR) offers a way of doing so....