I examine the relative information roles among West Texas Intermediate spot crude price and four futures contracts (F1 through F4) with different maturities. Using a cointegrated system with a non-unitary cointegrating vector, I address price discovery by investigating which price is more...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag model is chosen. The results show that a sharp...

This paper develops a new methodology that makes use of the factor structure of large dimensional panels to understand the nature of non-stationarity in the data. We refer to it as PANIC - a 'Panel Analysis of Non-stationarity in Idiosyncratic and Common components'. PANIC consists of univariate...

The paper consists of two parts devoted to the cause-effect dynamic models. In each part of the deterministic properties of the dynamic version of the model are presented. Thus, each of the considered dynamic models can be presented in the form of an equivalent for it the switching trend....

The influx of shipping receipts from the world's leading fleet has been critical for the development of the Greek economy. Following the disastrous September of 2008, the range and speed of the shift in direction of the freight rates, combined with the general economic and credit climate, have...

This paper analyzes the responsiveness of Thai outbound tourism to East Asian destinations, namely China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, to changes in effective relative price of tourism, total real total tourism expenditure, and one-off events. The nonlinear and linear Almost Ideal Demand...

The empirical growth literature has focused on capital accumulation but largely ignored productivity growth. To address this imbalance, we propose a methodology for analyzing productivity convergence based on frontier production functions. We examine whether departures from the frontier are...

A method for analyzing productivity convergence based on frontier production functions is proposed. It is examined whether departures from the frontier - country-level inefficiencies - exhibit long-run relationships and convergence. The method is applied to 1-digit industries of 14 OECD...